By: Joel Kruger
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INTRA-WEEK DOLDRUMS
Striking Oil - The economic calendar is stacked on Thursday and there is no shortage of volatility inspiring events. The standouts come in the form of ECB and BOE rate decisions (ECB carries the heavier market moving influence), and US GDP data. So far this week, there hasn't been a whole lot to get excited about. The Euro has been consolidating recent declines, the Yen still doesn't want to break from its multi-month triangle, GOLD can't commit one way or the other, while US equities have retained the usual unwavering bid tone. Yawn. But there has been one glimmer of light this week. As per my recommendation in previous commentary, I did manage to pick up some OIL on the recent dip into the $93s. I am now long from $93.50 and will be looking for a more significant recovery over the coming days. Still, I am not looking to take on any added risk here and have moved my stop-loss to cost to eliminate the potential for loss. Wednesday's bullish reversal day looks encouraging and the 93.50 stop-loss is in a good position below Wednesday's low.
Wait For It - As you all well know by now, for me, the key market remains the US equity market. Until we see some kind of capitulation, I am not too sure we can expect to see any pickup in broader market volatility. The ability for US equities to retain such a strong bid tone has been incredible, and with each passing day it seems there are fewer and fewer who actually believe this market will ever go down again. Perhaps at this point, I am the only one. I am still not sure what the catalyst will be that sends this market lower in the coming days, though I have already proposed that it may just be something as simple as good old fashioned profit taking. For now, we just have to sit back and wait for it. The key level to watch below comes in at 1740 on the S&P, and this is the level that will need to be broken to get the ball rolling and open the highly anticipated and necessary healthy corrective pullback. Once this reversal gets started, look out below. Should we take out 1740, I am projecting additional declines of 10-20% into year end.
Wait For It - As you all well know by now, for me, the key market remains the US equity market. Until we see some kind of capitulation, I am not too sure we can expect to see any pickup in broader market volatility. The ability for US equities to retain such a strong bid tone has been incredible, and with each passing day it seems there are fewer and fewer who actually believe this market will ever go down again. Perhaps at this point, I am the only one. I am still not sure what the catalyst will be that sends this market lower in the coming days, though I have already proposed that it may just be something as simple as good old fashioned profit taking. For now, we just have to sit back and wait for it. The key level to watch below comes in at 1740 on the S&P, and this is the level that will need to be broken to get the ball rolling and open the highly anticipated and necessary healthy corrective pullback. Once this reversal gets started, look out below. Should we take out 1740, I am projecting additional declines of 10-20% into year end.
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